In 2023, the other Mirza (Tahir) took just under 18% of the vote in East Ham. If the general election was today, the Independent candidate would be expected to take 35% of the vote and the additional numbers would be taken from Labour.

The offhand attitude that the Labour Party has taken towards local government may now be coming back to bite it.

After a lull, Newham Independents have announced another candidate for the 2026 council elections.

Of course, the publication of their candidate for Forest Gate North may mean nothing more than he was the next in line. Having something of a conspiratorial mind we, however, are bound to ask whether there is more to this than first appears.

Readers will recall that Mayor Fiaz is a recent convert to the role. Having stood on a platform to abolish the post, after being in post for a few years she saw the wisdom in keeping the elected office. An office which saw her pocketing almost £100k per year.

We pondered whether by-election results are an indication of the popularity of the council.

We have excluded the results of by-elections held on the same days as the general election (07/05/15; 04/07/24), because the turnout prompted by the parliamentary elections will skew the results.

On top of the victories in Maryland and Forest Gate North, Labour were successful in Beckton and Little Ilford.

This should take the immediate pressure off Fiaz, but the implications for the Labour Party are still not clear. It seems unlikely that the threatened defections by a number of councillors will now occur.

We may be forced to revise our predictions for the Beckton byelection.

With the general election over, thoughts are going to the two byelections scheduled for July 18th. Little Ilford still seems to be odds-on for Newham Independents.

Good to see the “superb and talented” new councillors, who replace the “fantastic” and “outstanding” councillors who have stepped down.

Behind the veneer of electoral success, and by any standards 412 seats is a success of historic proportions, there lies a hidden truth that suggests that the mandate Keir Starmer is claiming is not quite so strong.

Behind all of the congratulations and euphoria, (on what was a remarkable day for Labour), locally enthusiasm for any of the candidates was limited.

It seems that defections are in the air.

On Tuesday 2nd July, just two days before the general election, Georgie David, Reform’s candidate for the West Ham and Beckton seat resigned. What’s more, she urged her supporters to vote for the Conservatives, who will clearly be grateful for any help they can get.

We learn that Labour activists, (and there aren’t that many of them), have been expressing concern about the canvass returns for the council by-election in Beckton.

We remarked upon the decision of Lyn Brown MP to stand down from her Stratford seat. We speculated that this presaged her elevation to the House of Lords.

This article from The Guardian kinda adds fuel to the speculation.

Courtesy of social media, we see a small team of Labour activists (incl. one councillor, one ex-councillor and one wannabe councillor), out leafleting for the Labour Party in Beckton.

It appears that candidate James Asser now has his election campaign up and running. He has his own on-line presence together with a number of endorsements.

There appears to be a shortage of male candidates from the Labour Party. We understand that Labour has chosen their candidate to fight the byelection in Little Ilford. Our sources tell us that, following his storming performance in Plaistow North, where he came second to the Independent candidate, Aktharul Alam has been chosen to fight in Little Ilford for Labour.

A casual scroll through the Newham website revealed the picture above.

It seems that the Beckton and the Little Ilford wards will both be contested on 18th July, when the result is likely to be determined by which party can mobilise the most of their supporters. Labour is likely to struggle.

The stories of dissent in the local Labour Party continue to leak out. While Labour leads nationally with a lead of nearly 20 points in opinion polls, locally, Labour continues to be dogged by internal discord.

Newham Independents have hit the election campaign running. They have been the first to announce their candidates and appear to have embraced the forthcoming ballot with an enthusiasm, not shared by the other parties.

Newham Labour have announced their candidates for three of the four upcoming byelections. You’ll be glad to hear that they are all “amazing”, though quite in what way they are amazing is yet to be revealed.

Few of the parties appear to have been prepared for the general election. Only the Greens appear to have been ready to get into election mode quickly.