Humiliation for Labour? Naqvi Takes Plaistow North
Nationally Labour is riding high. It seems that the fears shown by voters are being dispelled and the electorate are beginning to think that Keir Starmer might make a decent prime minister.
Labour’s popularity with the voters is expressed in the opinion polls with Labour now polling consistently in the mid-40s while the Tories poll in the mid-20s.
In the October parliamentary byelections (in Tamworth and South Bedfordshire), Labour did the seemingly impossible and overturned massive Tory majorities. In July, Labour again took a seat from the Tories, this time in Selby and narrowly missed out in Uxbridge.
Where Labour is fighting the Tories, they are winning.
So, what is going wrong in Newham? Firstly, it is not the Tories they have to worry about.
In 2022 Labour candidates in Plaistow North each took around 2000 votes, some 70% of the votes cast. In November 2023 they took 750.
The other ‘Independent’, Anas Khan and the Conservatives took 274 and 257 votes respectively. With 1266 votes, Sophia Naqvi took as many votes as the next three candidates combined.
A 25% turnout is small, but not unusual for a council byelection. This cannot explain the collapse in the Labour vote. Gaza and the national campaign from within the Muslim community to distance themselves from Labour, undoubtedly played a significant part in the campaign. But the swing against Labour to Independent was similar in both Boleyn and Plaistow North. The Boleyn byelection was three months before Hamas precipitated the most recent round of fighting. This is looking like a trend, at least in areas with a high Muslim population.
There will be those hoping that this is a temporary blip; that may turn out to be wishful thinking.
Considering the recent by-elections, the Wallend byelection was a respectable win for Labour, although, when polls were showing massive swings TO Labour across the country, in Wallend, the swing was AGAINST Labour, not massively, but against. The defeat in Boleyn was a disaster. The defeat in Plaistow North is a humiliation.
We offer five possible reasons behind Labour’s struggle.
Fiaz! Inept, fixated on her pet projects and wholly unable to manage the budget or provide the services residents require.
Fiaz! Unpopular with councillors, unpopular with party members, unpopular with staff and unpopular with the voters.
Labour in Newham is tired and lacks both a vision and energy. Worse, Labour in Newham is now seen as vulnerable.
For the first time in decades, Labour is facing an opposition that wants to win. It is an opposition that builds its support on an ethno-religious communitarian base. Labour currently has no response.
Labour can do something about the first two, though probably not for a couple of years. Regarding the third, Labour seems to be a vehicle for getting people elected, but no-one is sure what they are there to do. And the fourth, Labour can do little to oppose the establishment of a new party. But they will have to decide whether they will confront this new party on principle or will appease them in the hope of retaining some of the votes, say in parliamentary elections. Meanwhile they face a campaign that aims to attack local Labour and its record at every opportunity.
We have revised our thoughts on the wards that are now vulnerable to the Independents (and Greens) and this will be the subject of another article to be published soon. Whatever happens, it looks like the council of 2026 will have a radically different complexion to the council Mayor Fiaz inherited.
It might behoove Labour to reflect upon what has made one of the most popular councils in the country unelectable. If they simply blame Gaza, (or Starmer) they are doomed to repeat their defeats.
The by-election results were as follows:
Two by-elections in a row go to Mirza’s Independents. With the defection of Cllr Zuber Gulamussem the Independents now become the largest opposition party on the council.
Naqvi, Gulamussem and Mirza; with Mirza now leading the largest opposition group, not bad for someone who has only been a councillor for four months.
