East Ham Shock Poll
A poll published by Stats for Lefties suggests that Labour are coming under renewed pressure in Newham.
If this is correct it would be one of the greatest electoral upsets in the country.
The 2024 results show Labour taking an absolute majority of over 51%:
This was down from the 76% in 2019 and the 83% in 2017. Can it be that one of Labour’s safest seats is now marginal?
The general election is years away, so we don’t expect anyone to panic yet. But this year there will be (some) local elections outside of London. It will be interesting to see how the vote goes, with support for Reform (JLP predict the loss of 100 parliamentary seats to Reform) and Independent Muslim candidates being the most interesting and unpredictable.
There are 1600 council seats being contested in May 2025. Labour must worry that it has lost its base amongst both Muslims and the white working class.
The impact of Reform in Newham will be negligible, 5% according to the poll above. The impact of the Newham Independent group could well create a political earthquake.
In 2023, the other Mirza (Tahir) took just under 18% of the vote in East Ham. If the general election was today, the Independent candidate would be expected to take 35% of the vote and the additional numbers would be taken from Labour.
The offhand attitude that the Labour Party has taken towards local government may now be coming back to bite it. In 2026 there will be local elections in Newham. Labour must still be favourites to with the mayoralty, assuming that they can find a reasonable candidate. However, the north east of the borough is looking increasingly vulnerable to a challenge from the Newham Independents.
We have noted Muslim disenchantment with Labour (and here, & here). We have also reflected on the increasing unpopularity of the mayor and the local council, here and here and here).
It is now conceivable that Labour, whilst still the largest party in the borough, may not have an absolute majority on the council in 2026.
And Labour’s response? Nationally, Labour have sought to win back some of the Muslim vote by offering political ‘carrots’; Labour has suddenly gone soft on first-cousin marriages, it has promised to create what is effectively a blasphemy law to protect criticism of Islam and the Foreign Secretary has gone as far as he can to suggest that he is pro-Palestinian.
In adopting this approach Labour has thrown secular Muslims under the bus. Those who actually believe in universal rights as opposed to a hierarchy of rights attaching to different communities are sidelined. Some now wonder if there is any place for them in Labour, and to our knowledge, Muslims from the subcontinent who reject the communitarian agendas supported by Labour have gone to join Sikhs and Hindus in other parties.
Instead of a vision for a united nation with many different peoples, Labour now champions the Balkanisation of Britain.
Locally, Labour remains unpopular. Increased taxes (council tax and car charges) beside poor services will make 2026 difficult in Newham. Mehmood Mirza took Boleyn precisely on this platform, months before Gaza became an issue.
This is an interesting time to be an observer of Newham politics, but probably a rather more anxious time if you happen to be a Labour candidate.