Labour Struggling in Plaistow North

News leaking out of the campaign suggests that the battle for Plaistow North will not be won on the doorstep, but in the mosques.

Various community leaders are making comments along the lines of “it's time for a change”, and repeating the line from Naqvi’s election material, “Labour isn’t working”.

The Mirza/Naqvi team put out the following. Oh, the irony!

We understand that when Labour candidate, Aktharul Alam made approaches to one of the mosques with a view to addressing their members. They politely, but firmly declined.

It’s a by-election. The numbers voting will be relatively small if the historical pattern is repeated*. The question is, who will mobilise their vote most effectively?

In addition, Labour’s recent byelection victories have depended upon Labour maintaining its core vote. When they came under pressure from a determined and energetic campaign in Boleyn, that vote disappeared. They are facing a similar challenge in Plaistow North.

On top of this it is unclear whether the party machinery still works after years of enforced dormancy. Labour has scheduled a packed programme of canvass sessions, but we have yet to find out, will the mosques prove to be better at getting out the vote than the party?

Time will tell.

Meanwhile, Naqvi’s team have opened up a number of new fronts on social media. They have debunked the claims in Alam’s leaflet. They are campaigning to bring back the first-car-free parking scheme. They have challenged Labour’s record on fly-tipping, council tax hikes and financial management. We suspect that there is more to come.

*By-election Turnout:

In the June 2023 byelection in Boleyn only 28% turned out, (winner took 42.5% of the votes cast);

 in Wallend, on the same day, 25% turned out (and the winner took 60% of the vote); 

in East Ham Central May 2021 38% turned out, (winner took 54%); 

in Boleyn in 2018 there was a 23.5% turnout, (winner took 60%); 

A turnout of above 25% would suggest that there is a real race on.