Labour under pressure in East London

In a corner of east London today, a by-election is taking place in Plaistow, part of the London Borough of Newham. Labour won this seat by a landslide in 2022 by a 1500 vote margin. But things are now totally different after one of their councillor’s stepped down at the start of the Israel-Hamas war. A heavily Muslim dominated area of Newham, Plaistow North, is now the epicentre of quite a battle and potentially could serve as a test of how British Muslim voting behaviour has been impacted by events in the Middle East. The local Mayor is a Muslim, directly elected in 2018 and 2022, and 18 of her council colleagues share the same faith. A few weeks back, Andrew Marr the veteran political broadcaster, claimed that Muslims across the country were mobilising and sharing data over which MP’s were vulnerable and as a result battle-lines began to be drawn, with many Muslims saying that the days of an automatic vote for Labour are gone.

This palpable anger is visible on social media platforms and was exacerbated by a vote in Parliament where most Labour MP’s voted against calling for a ceasefire. This, allied with Keir Starmer’s frankly ill-judged and crass remarks to LBC at Labour’s conference which appeared to condone Israel in the perpetrating war crimes, was too much for many in the community and despite being in opposition, the opprobrium directed at the Labour leader appears to particularly vicious.

So, the first test of the apparent anger at Labour could manifest itself in Newham, London where the first Muslim Labour Cllr in London to resign over Gaza, defected to a new local ‘Newham Independents Party’. The resignation took place at a pro-Palestinian rally outside the Town Hall on Wednesday and was captured by a Muslim satellite TV channel. The footage was shared thousands of times across the country on WhatsApp, giving an enormous boost to the Independent candidate standing in the election. She happens to be a female Muslim hijab wearing local activist with strong pro-Palestinian credentials. Her strong campaign heavily features local issues, such as record Council Tax bills, fly-tipping, parking charges and alleged mismanagement of finances by the local Labour Mayor, Rokhsana Fiaz. It’s hard to recall any other party, outside those with MPs in Westminster or UKIP running such a visually stunning campaign. Can they overturn a 1500 vote margin, it certainly would be a remarkable achievement and possibly prick the ears of the national Labour leadership, if they lose. Whatever does happen, this won’t bode well for Labour, especially because Lutfur Rahman’s Aspire, who now run Tower Hamlets, are just a few miles away. This could be the start of the beginning of the end of Labour, just as it was in Tower Hamlets 15 years ago, when Rahman left Labour and won the Mayoralty.

Results will be announced by midnight. Labour in this part of London should be very worried!