Psephological Fortune Telling and the Collapse in Labour Support

The issue of Labour’s collapse in the opinion polls has taken hold amongst our readers. They have been kind enough to share some recent opinion polls and ask for (more) comment.

In short, Labour polling has gone from bad to worse since the General Election in 2024. Nationally, Labour support is down by 25%, the northern disillusionment with Labour shows a 30% drop. In the forthcoming county local elections, the money is on Labour councillors facing a backlash from which Reform might pick up 67 seats, the Tories 87 and even the thoroughly discredited SNP might take 26 from Labour. 

That is unlikely to be the case in Newham, where we will go to the polls in 2026. The combined Conservative/Reform vote is likely to be in the 20%-25% range in Newham. They have shown little real interest in the borough since the late David Ames became an MP.

As the right-wing vote is split and because they, (or at least the Tories), will try to stand in every seat, their efforts and their votes will be spread, and they are unlikely to pick up any seats. The last time the Tories had a councillor was when Royal Docks councillor, Mike Law defected in 2005. Bizarrely, there was a second defection from the same ward at the same time. The current Deputy Mayor, Cllr Sarah Ruiz jumped ship and joined George Galloway’s Resect Party. (You couldn’t make it up.)

Locally, Labour’s position in Newham at the General Election (2024) in Newham was

East Ham West Ham Stratford and Bow

Labour 51.6% 45.2% 44.1%

Conservatives 10.2% 10.2% 7.2%

Independants 20.2% 21.5% 22.2%

Greens 11.2% 10.7% 17.3%

Reform 3.5% 7.7% 4.8%

Libdems 3.2% 4.4% 4.4%

More-in-Common Poll published in Sunday Times 20th December 2024

East Ham West Ham Stratford

Labour 44.6% 40.5% 40.8%

Conservatives 13.1% 14.1% 11%

Greens 10.4% 10% 14.5%

Reform 7.5% 12.6% 9%

Lib-Dems 7.4% 7.6% 7.1%

Newham Ind 16.9% 15.2% 17.5%

December (2024) National Polling (NowCast Constituency data)

East Ham West Ham Stratford

Labour 43% 35.5% 34.4%

Conservatives 13.1% 13% 9.6%

Greens 13.4% 12.6% 19.4%

Reform 7.3% 13.5% 10.1%

Lib-Dems 3.3% 3.5% 4.6%

Newham Ind 17.8% 19.4% 14.6%

Recent Byelection Results from GE (Late 2024) Changes in Voting Intention by region:

Northern Byelections (Approximation) Southern Byelections

Labour -30% -20%

Conservatives 0% 0%

Reform +25% +15%

Greens + 2.5% +2.5%

Lib-Dems + 2.5% +2.5%

The two December polls are similar, though in  the More-in-Common poll, the Lib-Dems come out rather stronger locally. This may reflect their methodology, rather than the reality as the Lib-Dems seem to have abandoned Newham in favour of more hospitable environs elsewhere. 

Reflecting the position on the council, Newham Independents appear to have secured themselves as the main contenders to Labour. Their strength is also their vulnerability; they rely on the votes of a single religious community, but it is a community that is growing and as we have seen in Tower Hamlets, where they are 40% of the population, they are now the dominant group; the mayor plus 39 of the 45 councillors are Muslims. 

In Newham, in 1911, there were 160 Muslims living in East Ham and West Ham (Howard Bloc and J. Widdowson), a number too small to register as a percentage, in 2011 the number was of 32% and by 2021 the number was 34%. Obviously, not every Muslim is going to vote for the Independents, but the pool from which they are drawing most of their support is growing and it is taking support from those who would previously, generally have voted Labour.

Byelections Little Ilford Beckton By Election

Labour 39.0% 38.7%

Conservatives 4.6% 9.3%

Newham Ind 32.6% 30.9%

Greens 4.5% 14.8%

Reform N/A N/A

Lib-Dems 12.1% 6.2%

Some thoughts on what these figure might mean, or, put another way, some psephological fortune telling. Assuming that the Labour vote at the General Election indicated the maximum level of support, a loss of 10% in support would mean that mean that Labour would be run very close in both Little Ilford and Beckton ward if a local election was held today. Four points going to the Independents would make the result too close to call. Given that turnout in council elections is generally lower, that could spell more woes for Newham Labour, particularly if opposition parties run energetic and intelligent campaigns.

We have reflected before on the unpleasant prospect of the Balkanisation of the borough, (and the country). Newham Independents have carved a place as the Muslim Party locally and have built bridges with some who were on the Corbynite-left of the Labour Party. We do not know whether this bridge-building will extend to some of the fringe-left parties which take miniscule numbers in the polls, but those small numbers might just be enough to tip the balance in an election. It is far from being an exaggeration to suggest some form of pact would be joined locally between the Greens and the Independents. In Leeds it appears, the Islamist candidate effected a reverse take-over of the local Green Party.

Nationally, Farage’s current electoral vehicle, (Reform) is riding high and is now threatening Labour held seats. The success of Reform in splitting the Conservative vote in the general election ensured the electoral success of Labour in England. While the two parties contend for the position as the mainstream right-of-centre party, they are unlikely to reach an accommodation. 

But what will happen when the results of the government’s spending review (still to come in 2025) become apparent? The effects of a 10% hike in council tax can only be imagined. In Slough, Labour’s poor administration and hefty council tax rises resulted in a Conservative landslide. Personally, Fiaz is becoming more of a liability because of her dismal performance, (did you see the state of the streets over Christmas and New Year?) and a laughing stock because of her court case against her own council. Even if she is ousted in an attempt regain some credibility with the electorate, her legacy will be an albatross around the neck of Newham Labour. And with looming cuts, we cannot rule out industrial action by Newham staff in the winter before the election.

On top of this we will be well into the term of the Labour government who seem to be in thrall to specific interest groups and who have done everything they can to alienate voters; slashing benefits to pensioners and raising costs to employers. If local voters are angry with the Labour government, it will be the Labour council candidates who are first to feel their wrath.

There are those who ponder, with a first past the post system, this might now work against Labour. They may get the most votes in the borough but fall foul of multiple highly local battles for council seats.

Labour must still be the favourite to win the mayoralty, whoever it is that they stand. It would stretch credulity to suggest that the opposition would unite around some credible single candidate. But we do not know who Labour intends to stand. There is nothing to suggest that the local CLPs will be allowed to make the decisions, which means that the NEC will be in charge, and look at how well that worked out for Newham.