Whatever Happened to Boleyn?

We’ve decided to do a little number crunching in the wake of the momentous election result in Boleyn, (July 2023). We began in the first year of the mayoral system.

We’ve rounded the numbers, so they might not add up to exactly 100%.

The first thing that is apparent is that this has been a relatively safe seat for Labour. In 2002 and 2006, when Labour showed its poorest figure, they still took over 40% of the vote. In any other place, this figure would have had a political party whooping for joy. 

The numbers climbed through the next two decades reaching an extremely impressive 75% in the 2018 by-election, (up from 72% six months before in the full council elections). 

Labour, it seems, took votes primarily from the Tories. This was a decade when Newham was seen as an efficient and well-run council, voters who might have voted Conservative in a general election voted Labour locally. For some reason, the Tory vote which seemed to be recovering, collapsed in the 2023 by-election.

Indeed, all of the opposition party votes collapsed, save the Greens, who must now consider themselves on a par with or ahead of the Tories in Newham. Certainly, they are more visible. In Boleyn the Greens came in after Labour with 572 votes; in Wallend it was the Tories who followed Labour with 739 votes, suggesting that the different demographics of the wards have played a part in the choice of protest vote. 

There is some evidence that dissatisfied Labour voters are turning to the Greens. This is from correspondence we received from a Boleyn voter.

“We are lifelong Labour voters and reluctantly voted Green in the Boleyn bi-election, as we cannot bring ourselves to vote for the current Newham administration.

“Requests for advice/help from Councillors are repeatedly ignored - Formal complaints are ignored. 

“We still support Sir Stephen, of course!”

If Labour does not get its house in order, they run the risk of disillusioned Labour voters turning their protest votes into a habit. 

Our tentative suggestions are that by the end of the first term of Mayor Fiaz’s time in office, the cumulative effects of internal party dissent and the highly publicised antisemitism within the party made traditionally Labour voters feel a little less inclined to lend their support. On top of this, a perceived decline in services, (keeping the streets clean for example) combined with ever-increasing council tax demands made others feel disinclined to give their votes to an administration that no longer had their interests at heart. On top of this, Mirza championed local causes that the Tories favoured, parking charges for instance.

The Tory vote evaporated and it seems that Mr, sorry, Councillor Mirza was the prime beneficiary.

In 2022, Labour still had 62% of the vote in Boleyn, but as we saw in the Plashet by-election, Labour’s grip was getting a little more tenuous with a 22% swing to the Tories. Between the 2018 and the 2022 mayoral elections, Labour saw 20,000 votes disappear. In the Boleyn by-election the swing to an independent was over 30%.

Our reading is that there had been no serious challenge to Labour for years; Respect targeted the Muslim community, (however much they protested otherwise) but that was 20 years ago. The CPA sought to build support in the large Christian community. But the Christians tended not to vote on the basis of religious identity and the Muslim community proved to be less homogenous than anticipated. In Green St particularly, Respect garnered support in the wake of the Iraq invasion. In Canning Town South, where the CPA had some success, this was built on uncertainty and anxiety over a regeneration programme. When the programme started to deliver, the anxieties were lifted and the opposition melted away.

This meant that opposition was left to the half-hearted attempts of the traditional parties and the voters gave them as much support as their feeble efforts deserved.

What was different this time was that there was a candidate who was enthusiastic about the poll and energetic in his campaigning. He worked the ward and built a team of enthusiastic helpers. Some of these have many years of campaigning experience in the Labour Party.

Labour has been aided by the lack of enthusiasm of the other parties; they have basically given up on Newham. Things might be changing. The Greens have two councillors and are energetically campaigning whenever they get the chance. We don’t yet know if Mehmood Mirza is a one-off or the precursor of a new wave of Muslim community activists; “Newham First”? Or Newham Aspire. Or alternatively, Newham Independent Labour, because it is clear that significant numbers of ex-Labour members on the left favour him over the Labour Party now. 

Labour must be pondering whether all of the seats in Boleyn are at risk in 2026 and whether they will be joined by Green St East and West.

Equally, will the Greens be spreading their influence east along the wards on the Romford Road and perhaps down into E16 where the demographics are rapidly changing?

This is just conjecture. What is not, is that Labour is beginning to see its traditional hold on the voters of Newham loosening. When there was a massive swing to Labour nationally, there was a swing AGAINST Labour locally. The solution lies largely, in their own hands.