And the Race Begins…
The main parties have announced their candidates. We take a brief look at them here.
Seleyha Ahsan: Piecing together the little we know of her, Seleyha seems to be a clinician with a background in the forces. Doubtless this will all come out as the campaign develops. She is also a filmmaker and if we understand this correctly, will be appearing on our TV screens in the SAS Who Dares Wins series.
She has contested a number of seats for the Liberals; in 2019 she sought both a seat in the European parliament for London, and in the UK parliament for Milton Keynes. She was unsuccessful in both.
The Lib-Dems took 9% of the vote in 2018 and a mere 2.3% in 2014. Not a massive number but if their second preferences were to transfer to a single candidate en-masse, it might contribute to something of a shake-up.
Rob Callender: Rob has thrown his hat in the ring for the Greens in both the Royal Victoria ward and for the mayoralty. Back in 2014, the Greens took a modest 4% of the mayoral vote. It is unclear as to whether they have embraced the hard truths of electoral politics. If they stand against the Lib-Dems, they are very likely to split the same vote. If they stand across the borough, they will wear out their scarce resources.
Rokhsana Fiaz: Labour’s imposed candidate is Rokhsana Fiaz. She has held the role for the last four years. In some ways this nomination is a surprise given that she has been mired in allegations of bullying and manifestly failed to meet almost all of her election promises. On top of this she has lumbered the population of Newham with successive tax hikes and new taxes on parking.
Despite all of this, Fiaz must remain the favourite, given that she has the Labour stamp of approval. However, her vote in 2018 accounted for 73%. We wonder if Mr Mirza (of whom, more later) will be seeking to knock that below 50% this time round. In 2014 Wales took 61% of the vote, in 2018 Fiaz took 73%.
Mehmood Mirza: Probably the favourite to come second, Mr Mirza is one of those who left, or were encouraged to leave the Labour Party. Known to be on the Left, where he and Fiaz were once confederates in the plan to topple Wales. He has established himself as a leading campaigner on matters of litter and fly-tipping and has been a thorn in the side of the council for his persistence. He has additionally campaigned against the high residential parking charges. He has also become prominent in the community campaign to save the city farm. He is likely to get the support of Labour’s left-wing, particularly those who have just left the party. His community activity could well garner the support of voters who feel that the council no-longer represents their interests.
Attic Rahman: Attic has stood for the Tories in Royal Docks before and for a European seat in 2019. In neither case was he successful. In many ways his approach is typically Tory; low tax and fiscal responsibility-helping people to stand on their own feet. Here is his statement:
“Our council tax increases every year and yet the same old issues remain with the same old Labour-run Council. It is time for a new social settlement between the Council and the residents of Newham. A hand-up, not a hand-out. A council that is on your side, irrespective of your background, ability or wealth. A council that wants you to be successful and choose to make Newham a place to live, work and stay. With the Conservatives, together we will deliver on the priorities of Newham.”
The Tories took 12% of the vote in 2018 but in 2014 they garnered a more respectable 18%. They may do a little better this time round, but the big question is where will their second preferences go and will they encourage their voters to support a single candidate?
Elsewhere we reflect upon the candidacy of the CPA candidate, Simeon Ademolake. The CPA are unlikely to poll much beyond the 3% they got in 2018, but they might well encourage their voters in their choice of second preferences.
We will take a look at other new contestants as they become known.