Can You Spot the Difference?

We noted in an earlier report that “Holding all the elections on the same day is sensible. It saves work and money. By holding council by-elections on the same day as the general election, you are guaranteed to double the turnout of voters. This, historically speaking, has been to Labour’s advantage.”

It seems that the business managers of Newham's Labour Group have messed up. Or maybe it was just James Asser.

When we learned that former councillor, James Asser was likely to stand for parliament in the West Ham and Beckton seat, we assumed that the byelection for Beckton ward would be on the same day as the general election. It seems that we were wrong.

We can only assume that because Asser resigned after Councillors Penton and Das Gupta, this affected the timetable. The notices (of a Casual Vacancy) were issued for Maryland and Forest Gate North on the 24th May; for Beckton the notice was issued on the 28th.

Because of the general election, we have assumed that the Labour vote will be fairly solid and that with a turnout in the region of 60%, Labour voters in the two northern wards will cast their votes for the Labour council candidate at the same time.

In Beckton, they won’t have that chance. We think that the prospect of getting voters to turn out in Beckton, twice in two weeks might be a bit of a stretch.

So here is our prediction for the council byelections. The Greens will do well in Maryland, and it will be fascinating to see how the Independent candidate, Linda Jordan does, but Labour will win. 

Newham Independents will do well in Forest Gate, but with a large turnout, Labour will win.

In Beckton, Newham Independents will put in a major effort, targeted at the Muslim community. Equally we expect Labour to swamp the ward during those two weeks with canvassers. The turnout will be in the 25% region and Labour will be under substantial pressure; they could conceivably lose the seat.

And that WOULD be embarrassing. James Asser resigns council seat and it is taken by the Independent Group. But he is unlikely to worry as he will then be in possession of a sinecure bringing in £100k a year.

For the rest of us, this is becoming far more interesting by the day.

*The closing date for nominations in Maryland and Forest Gate is Friday 7th June. For Beckton the date is 21st June.