Even More Rests on the By-election Results

Mayor Fiaz has been observed taking credit for the byelection successes in Forest Gate North and Maryland. However, our thoughts are that her assertions that the crisis is over may be a little premature.

Word has reached Open Newham that there are at least four councillors who are ready to ditch Labour if the results in Little Ilford and Beckton go against Labour. We have the names, but clearly, we are not going to release them.

A combination of a number of problems seems to be behind their decision making. The obvious one is the threat to their seats posed by the Greens and Newham Independents. This will be increased in the event that the two parties form a non-aggression pact whereby they do not oppose one another in the seats where one is in second place to Labour.

On top of this is their difficulty defending the dismal performance of Newham Labour in the area of service delivery. But what seems to have finally tipped the balance is the realization that the deficit at the end of the year is unlikely to be £50 million. It is on course to be closer to £80 million.

In case the implications are not obvious, an overspend of this magnitude can only be tackled by massive cuts.  There are, it seems, some Labour councillors who do not want to be tarred with the same brush as Derek Hatton’s Liverpool Council. We can only imagine Keir Starmer repeating Neil Kinnock’s tirade at next year’s conference, when “a Labour, a Labour council is ferrying around redundancy notices in a taxi”.

It is unclear whether the unions have cottoned on to the scale of the problem yet and how it will affect their members.

If Labour wins both seats, the imminent crisis is averted. If they lose one or both we can offer good odds on further defections. This may cause a number of other sitting councillors to reflect upon how safe their seats will be in 2026.