Is the Beckton Byelection Hotting Up?

We may be forced to revise our predictions for the Beckton byelection.

With the general election over, thoughts are going to the two byelections scheduled for July 18th. Little Ilford still seems to be odds-on for Newham Independents.

Beckton however, is looking to be a little more complex. Each of the parties are now pursuing their canvass returns.

Labour is not feeling confident. We had suggested that Newham Independents were most likely to take the seat, and while they are certainly taking votes from Labour, we are not sure that they are taking enough to win.

Coming along on the inside is Justine Levoir, for The Green Party. One of James Asser’s legacies is to have left a sizable hostility to the Labour Council and a united opposition in the ward. Campaigners for the City Farm joined forces with The Greens in 2022. And they came within 250 votes of catching Labour.

This was when there was no Newham Independent Group. There is now a three-way race.

The turnout is almost certain to be lower than in 2022. If Newham Independents take half of the Labour vote, and the Green/Community vote holds up, Justine Levoir can look forward to warming a seat on the council benches and Labour could find itself in a humiliating third place.

As always, the byelection will largely be determined by which party can best get their vote out.

The seat is also being contested by Blossom Young for Labour; Maria Clifford for the Conservatives; James Alan Rumsby for the Lib-Dems; and Shahzad Abbasi for Newham Independents.