Labour Makes a Clean-Sweep of By-elections

On top of the victories in Maryland and Forest Gate North, Labour were successful in Beckton and Little Ilford.

This should take the immediate pressure off Fiaz, but the implications for the Labour Party are still not clear. It seems unlikely that the threatened defections by a number of councillors will now occur. Dissent about Fiaz, her attitude towards colleagues, poor service delivery and her inability to manage the budget continue, but we suspect that things will go quiet until the cuts are announced, (it will all be the fault of the Tories), then we can expect voices to be raised by the rump of Momentum and some councillors afraid that this will affect their electoral ambitions.

The results are as follows, the Newham website gives the following information.

On a turnout of 13.5%, Blossom Young took just under 600 votes. Shahzad Abbasi took 476 votes; 125 votes behind. That’s not much.

However, at a normal election we should expect double or triple the turnout, so the byelection numbers don’t tell us a lot.

What came as a surprise was the collapse of the Green vote in Beckton. Maybe they switched. Maybe they stayed at home.

13.5% was not the lowest turnout for a by-election. In 2000, in two by-elections for Custom House and Silvertown (Feb and Dec) the turnout was 10.6% and 11.3%. In the 2002 election, the new ward of Custom House had a turnout of 20%.

The turnout in Little Ilford, the ward where Newham Independents were more confident was 18.3% (compared to 33% in the 2022 election). 

Labour had called in members from across the capital to assist the local party. This clearly had some benefit in mobilizing the identified Labour voters in support of a “brilliant” candidate, ably assisted by a “legendary” councillor.

In Little Ilford, at his second attempt in 12 months, Akthural Alam took the seat, being closely chased by former East Ham Constituency Labour Party Chair, Tahir Mirza who came within 150 votes of catching him.

What of the future?

Have the Independents reached their high point? Clearly Labour hopes so. Newham Independents might review their strategy, focusing on those seats where there is a distinct demographic advantage.

Will the Independents go the way of Respect? The evidence of Aspire in Tower Hamlets suggests that a communitarian party can succeed at a local level, but it is evident that Newham Independents cannot rely solely upon the support of one ethno-religious community if they wish to replicate Aspire’s success in Tower Hamlets. It is questionable how far they can reach outside of support in one community.

Has Gaza diminished as a cause celebre? The effects of the 2003 Iraq invasion eventually faded away. If so, are the Independents the natural home for dissent regarding parking fees, council tax rises and poor services. One would think that the Tories would be making hay at the expense of Labour, but as we have noted before, the Tories really can’t be bothered.

Alas, we’ve ignored the Liberals, but frankly, they’re irrelevant in Newham. There are clearly wards where the Greens have no base of support, (but others where they are the second party).