Labour Wins Hide Underlying Problems

We pondered whether by-election results are an indication of the popularity of the council.

We have excluded the results of by-elections held on the same days as the general election (07/05/15; 04/07/24), because the turnout prompted by the parliamentary elections will skew the results.

What we found was that for the term 

2014-2018 Labour averaged 58.6% of the vote

2018-2022 Labour averaged 64.8%, but from 

2022- Labour has averaged 39.6%.

If council byelection results reflect the satisfaction with the way in which the borough is run, then Labour support has dropped across the borough by around one third.

Of course there are caveats. Turnout was low, but it is always low, and recently turnout has dropped even lower. That of itself might suggest that voters are unenthusiastic.

Compare the turnout in Beckton in 2014 with 2024; a drop of 5.5 points. 

When the turnout increases, the beneficiaries seem to be Newham Independents, see Boleyn, 20.8% in 2015 and 27.7% in 2023.

Until 2021, Labour had gained an absolute majority in every byelection in the last three council terms, (we didn’t look further back). In Wall End Labour took 61% of the vote, but otherwise have only taken 39%, 38.7%, 27% and 32% in the other byelections.

Labour’s election managers might want to reflect upon why this is.

Results taken from Wikipedia.