Labour’s Crumbling Support. Who is Responsible?
We learn that Labour activists, (and there aren’t that many of them), have been expressing concern about the canvass returns for the council by-election in Beckton. They have pretty much given up on Little Ilford because of the demography, but Beckton, which recently returned (the Deputy Mayor and new parliamentary candidate), James Asser, is looking increasingly vulnerable to a campaign from Newham Independents.
Under the leadership of Mayor Fiaz, and in her second term Labour has lost two members by way of defections, one each to the Independents and the Greens.
She lost one before the election was held because her chosen candidate was found to be appallingly antisemitic, (something that might be worth reflecting on by the comrades when they criticize Reform?). This candidate was elected as a Labour councillor and then expelled from the party.
Four have stood down for ‘personal reasons’ and two have gone on to stand for parliament.
Our prediction has consistently been that Labour will be vulnerable on July 18th. Voters will be a little unenthusiastic about turning out again for the second time in two weeks. The byelections on July 4th, with a much larger turnout where the Tories are the unpopular incumbents at Westminster, should be better for Labour.
The byelections will be a competition to turn out their supporters, and Newham Independents appear to have both more energy and enthusiasm for their increasingly communitarian agenda.
In 2022 the Beckton turnout was 27%. For the byelection it could be substantially below 20%.
In Little Ilford in the same year, the turnout was 33%. That may be similar in the byelection. We predict a strong turnout in one ethno-religious community and apathy elsewhere.
In every by-election since 2022, Labour has seen a substantial swing against them. When Mehmood Mirza took the seat in Boleyn, it was not because of Gaza, it was because of the state of the streets, new parking charges and increased council tax. These issues continue to resonate and have nothing to do with Keir Starmer or the national Labour Party. Locally, satisfaction with the council has plummeted from 81% to 29% and that is the responsibility of one person.
July 18th will be a harbinger for Labour Party councillors. How long before they begin to wonder whether this mayor is a millstone around their collective necks? But what can they do about it?